Episode 7 Thoughts/Updates

[Charity]

Post thoughts below!

[Charity]

Thoughts on this coming vote -

Alexander has seized total control over this tribe, with Joshua having a lot of influence as well. I think that the push is going to be Ben (assuming that people keep a level head about the vote). Joshua wants Ben gone, and I doubt Joshua deters from this. Alexander has proven trust with everyone on the tribe, so I think he goes along with this as well. Gina has expressed some distrust for Joshua, which has Alexander concerned, but people like Gina and are not threatened by her. Joshua said “Gina said I could be a vote? That’s okay, let's convince her otherwise!” LOL! This could backfire, but I see her as someone who will likely be safe this round regardless. I could see Antoinette talking herself into a hole, so her best bet is to lay low and push Ben. Ben needs to go absolutely crazy and throw people under the bus if he hopes to stay this round - I think he pushes Antoinette to go? Not sure this will work though. Odds are currently 65% in favor for Ben to go, 25% Antoinette, and 10% the wild Gina/Joshua vote. 0.00001% Alexander.






Thoughts prior to the merge (OVERALL THOUGHTS)

Power Player(s). These are the people who are going to make an active effort to take control at merge. These are likely the people who will either run the game or get taken out for being huge threats. -

Kilby - Kilby is a mixed bag. He has numbers, and he's crazy enough to put himself out there strategically come a merge to take out other huge threats. He COULD have Taylor, Kari, Gina, Spitzer, Gaston, and Ryan if he plays his cards right. Kilby has options... which makes him a power player. He is going to be the person driving some of the early merge votes if he’s not taken out early, which he won’t be. Kilby's problem is that he puts faith in people like Kari, who has expressed being willing to flip on him the second she has the opportunity. On the flip side, he chooses to be paranoid of players like Ryan... who is probably the most reliable person he could align with long term. I think his reads in the game have proven to be somewhat off, and Kilby’s reads on who the threats are are almost reversed? I believe that people are going to target him at some point in the merge because he votes out the wrong people. I wonder how his idol is going to come into play?

Alexander - Alexander proved last vote that he is an absolute villain, and he is literally the type of villain I love watching. He voted out Ali in an attempt to not go to rocks, but he masterfully spoke to everyone on his tribe in such a way where they trusted him as a number and gave him a free pass for initially making the vote a tie. He also played the round in such a way that isolated Ben and Antoinette from being in the power position. If Alexander continues to play this way, he is going to be a serious force controlling the votes in the merge. I believe that Alexander COULD have Antoinette (if she makes it), Marcellino, Gaston, Gina, Joshua, Ben (if he makes it), etc. as potential numbers. The questions for Alexander's game are A. Will he be clocked by some of the other strategists and B. How bitter is he going to make people along the way? He doesn't care if he makes people mad, this could come back to bite him.




Low Key Strategists/Social Players

Taylor - Taylor is the one person in this game who is going to benefit from aligning with someone like Kilby. The thing about Taylor is that she has had a lot of influence, such as doing Van over Nicholas first despite pushback from others, but she will never get the credit for those moves unless she makes FTC. Taylor will be in trouble if people “fear going for the head of the snake” and target her as an attempt to throw off the numbers, but also if Taylor stays social with the majority of the people in the game then I think Taylor is going to get very far. She overall has displayed winner’s potential, she just needs to play more aggressively as the numbers decrease.

Gaston - Gaston benefits in this game from being on tribes with a large portion of the player’s in the game. Despite attending numerous tribals with people from all 3 tribes, he has managed to only burn one person in Kari. He is likable, he is a number people are going to talk about, and he is not going to be an immediate target for really anyone. He is probably the most connected person in the game in terms of who he has met. Gaston’s problem is going to come up in his lack of social awareness. Gaston had NO clue he almost went home the round Nicholas went, and a similar situation could come up if people decide to target him. I see him as not someone who stands out as a clear winner, but he won’t leave early merge either. I’m guessing a mid jury placement for Gaston.

Gina (IN DANGER THIS ROUND?) - NOBODY sees Gina as a threat, but she is very strong minded and a strong competitor. She has a clear idea of who she wants to align with, who she wants to target, etc. but I think that people are going to perceive Gina as a blind follower. Gina seems to be in trouble this round, but if Gina makes merge I won’t be shocked if Gina is brought to the end as the perceivable “goat” and then wins the vote because she is so likable. Gina’s biggest issue is that she tends to look 1-2 votes in advance, but in the merge she is going to need to learn how to look 4-5 votes in advance. I hope Gina is capable of adapting to the new gameplay a merge could bring if she survives the vote, she is making me so proud in how much she has learned so far.





Total Wildcard

Kari - IF Ben leaves prior to merge, Kari is going to be the only original Xevious member to make merge. WOW! Who would have guessed that? Kari has all the potential in the world to benefit from this. If she plays like she has absolutely no connections, then I think Galaga and Zaxxon could go after each other, or swapped tribes could ban together and take out the threats who are not Kari. Regardless, Kari has by far the most options in terms of what she could do in this merge. Kari’s pitfalls could be, however, that she’s a perceivable threat. Kari is super strong minded and stubborn, and Kari has nobody to defend her if people pitch her as an “easy vote.” I hope Kari plays hard in the merge and adds some unpredictability to the overall dynamics.



Hot Messes

Joshua - Joshua rubs people the wrong way, but he has proven that without his original Galaga members that he is someone who is willing to go crazy! I believe that original Galaga is going to try to pull him back in, which he might piggy back on for awhile, but I would not be shocked if Joshua has other plans and tries to form his own hybrid alliance.

Antoinette (IN DANGER THIS ROUND?) - Antoinette was doing SO WELL!! She was the person I thought hands down was going to win this game until the second swap occurred. With Ali leaving, she proved her messiness in trying to take credit for Alexander’s flip, which absolutely nobody believed. This proved to me that Antoinette is amazing at managing numbers when she is in a position where she has a clear advantage, but also the second things go wrong Antoinette flops like a fish and panics, making people distrust her. I hope that Antoinette could bounce back for the merge. I don’t know if she’s calculated enough to call any shots, but Antoinette’s best bet is to play the game she played on original Zaxxon and rely on her personality to take control over people.

Ben (IN DANGER THIS ROUND?) - Ben has proven that he is a crazy good competitor, and very well could leave tomorrow as a result of that. If he were to make the merge, however, Ben would be in a similar spot Kari is. Ben is a strong minded wildcard, but is also someone people could pitch as an easy vote. I don’t see Ben making it to the endgame.




Question Marks

Ryan - Ryan has a relatively simple agenda - GALAGA STRONG! Ryan is playing a very typical textbook game of Survivor, but this method rarely works in orgs because people are wild. I think if he doesn’t do a good job convincing Kilby of his agenda that he could be targeted. I think Ryan is potentially someone who isn’t taken seriously as a power player, but I am not sure what Ryan is going to do to distinguish himself as a player.

Marcellino - I know Marcellino is going to try and get good with everybody, but I think that he is going to continue his strategy of letting other huge people take each other out, using him as a vote, then floating along until he makes a clutch idol play taking a power player out. Marcellino has a very confusing story ahead of him, because he is not establishing himself as a clear archetype. The closest I can compare him to is a textbook villain floater, willing to do anything in the shadows to ensure his safety. I think he is either the early merge boot, or he floats along to 6 and plays the idol bringing him 1-2 challenges of making FTC.

[jordan]

Arkanoid Tribe

Alexander was probably the least connected with Gina during the last round, but due to past game history with Spitzer, he knew he couldn't go after her and needed to make a decision from one of the people he had been working with. Alexander left Antoinette out of his decision to flip on Ali because he felt like she was trying too hard to save both Ali and himself rather than specifically being loyal to Alexander and worrying about his safety. He flipped on Ali because he wasn't getting enough game talk back and it was mainly just a personal relationship where Ali was using him as a shield. Now, Alexander has his sights back on Gina and sees her as too likeable and a threat, so he decides to tell Antoinette that Gina doesn't trust her to get her thinking of targeting Gina instead of Ben.

Gina- She definitely surprised me this round by being more strategic outside of a group setting. Gina told the original Zaxxon's that she didn't trust Ben, setting him up as the next possible target. Especially after she felt bad for Ali after Ben yelled at him. But she realized Ali couldn't get to merge because he was never going to get targeted. She also talks about pretending to be top two with Kilby if reunited at a merge, but actually being top two with Spitzer...but then debates switching that up. She knows Antoinette has been lying to her, but is not openly threatened about it. However, vocalizing it, has allowed her tribemates to spin a narrative that might turn Antoinette against Gina.

Antoinette- First off, how does she think this is episode 11🤣 I know the game has been dragging for a few rounds, but this is only round 7🤷🏻 After the second swap, Antoinette got to work with bonding with Spitzer which she felt was easy since they are the two youngest players still in the game. She lies and tells him she doesn't trust anyone on her tribe and is glad he is there. So she was shocked when Alexander told her Spitzer threw her name out as a target. But then the Ben and Ali dispute happened and she was buying every bit of it and prepared to take Ben out...well now, she's trying to save face by saying she voted Ali on the revote (which no one is buying). Antoinette's lies are catching up to her and now some other lies are looking to derail her further. She was all set to continue trying to get Ben out, but then Ben tells her people are coming for her (which they weren't). She freaks out and goes to Alexander who sees the opportunity to plant the seed to go after Gina, telling her Gina started throwing out the idea of Antoinette.

Ben- He claims he gave Ali 'tough love' last round since Ali told him he was willing to make a move with Ben, but wasn't giving him a name. Add Ben to the long list of players who have snapped over Ali's wishy-washy, string them along antics. Turns out Ali never told Ben about Marcellino's idol, Ben was just using the info Alexander had already confirmed to him as if Ali told him, to get it out in the open without looking like Ben was doing it on his own volition. Now Ben sees himself as a possible swing between two duos. Spitzer/ Gina and Antoinette/ Alexander. He wants Spitzer out on one side because he thinks he is close with Kilby. But he wants Antoinette out on another because he believes he has Alexander's loyalty and that he has a 'meathead' persona. But he would rather win the next challenge since he knows Marcellino has an idol and Kilby as well, and wants them flushed before a merge. But his tribe loses and Ben realizes he might be in big trouble, so he starts spinning stories to get the target off of him. So far it seems to be working with the help of Alexander.

Spitzer- He believes he can work with Gina long term (although he has no problem ditching her either🤦🏻) and reunited at a merge he wants to work with his original Galaga group. But knows that he has to target Ryan and especially Kilby because they are big social threats to win in his mind. He also plans to keep Alexander around to dig his own grave at merge. He also doesn't care about winning the endurance immunity challenge and is lying to his tribe about a hurt shoulder so he doesn't have to showcase his abilities and be seen as a threat. Dammit Spitzer! I blame you for this loss. Also your cyber shack is a little too cutesy...who is going to spill intel when you are still logged onto the call 🤷🏻

[jordan]

Tempest Tribe

Gaston- He knows Kari has nowhere else to go on his tribe, but still doesn't trust her since she voted for him. But sees the value of trying to work with her. Doesn't think Taylor and Kilby would use Kari to blindside him, plus he believes Marcellino would still have his back and use an idol to protect them (Which I don't believe he would at this point).

Kilby- Kilby was thinking of voting Ryan out if they went to tribal since he had heard Ryan was telling people to be wary of Kilby at a merge and that he thinks Kilby has the idol, supposedly told to him by Spitzer during the tie breaker challenge. Kilby is also cautious of Marcellino's presence on the tribe, but thinks he's a boring non-threatening personality. Has been hearing that Ben is quite a threat on the other side. Likes Kari a lot and hopes that doesn't bite him by keeping her around. He also really loves Taylor and wants her to win...so by Kilby logic we can expect him to target her in the next few rounds🤪

Ryan- Believes he is the Machoman to Kilby's Hogan. He also says that original Galaga just needs to bring in one of Kari, Gaston, or Marcellino to have a majority. He is concerned Gaston has an idol and wants to flush it and explicitly says he is not concerned about Marcellino having an idol. Oops! Wants original Galaga five to destroy the other players at merge. Says he is not worried about his position on Tempest at all if they end up losing the endurance competition.

Taylor- Taylor and Kari tried to mend fences after the Nicholas vote, but Taylor still doesn't trust that Kari isn't going to come for her later. She recognizes that it is in Kari's best interest to play nice right now. Taylor still feels best with Gaston and Kilby.

Marcellino- Actually happy to see a Zaxxon was voted out, so all eyes wouldn't be on Zaxxon as a big threatening group. Believes Ryan, Gaston, and Kilby have a Canadian trio going and even if it isn't true, he might spread that rumor later. Is feeling confident he can last a long time on the endurance challenge, but doesn't know if he should show off how long he can go. But also wants to win so he doesn't have to play his idol yet. (Update they win and he does go for a pretty long time). Marcellino is speculating there could be a battle back competition in the game. I'm also very surprised and impressed that Marcellino had been keeping an organized Google sheet with all the game stats and info.

Kari- She's actually strategizing with Marcellino now and planning to get a coalition together at merge with him. Finally the #KariRevengeTour is getting some legs. #Justice4Nicholas She wants to bring Ben in of course. And Marcellino wants Alexander to join them. Antoinette is seen as too close to Gaston. Kari still doesn't know Marcellino has an idol, so he better tell her soon before she finds out from someone else at the looming merge.