Episode 4 Thoughts/Updates - SWAP

[Charity]

Post thoughts below

[Charity]

Swapped Zaxxon is so fucked LMAO Gina, Ryan, and Ben are in so much danger unless something changes with the blue group.

Galaga is more of an open playing field, with a 3-3-1 split. SO many ways this could go. Will do an in depth analysis of everyone tomorrow.

[jordan]

My initial thoughts at seeing the swapped tribes.

NuZaxxon tribe
1.) Old ZAXXON with the majority here!
2.) Only two women? I thought this was All Out!!!
3.) Haha Ryan lost his Bro-down Hoe-down group...if only Taylor had told Gina about that🤷🏻
4.) Ben has his work cut out for him!
5.) Don't expect to see it, but would love a four person Alliance with Antoinette, Gina, Alexander, and Ben

NuGalaga tribe
1.) Nicholas and Kari are probably freaking out about what Van is going to do😂
2.) King Kilby meet Prince Gaston...will they work together or clash?
3.) On paper, old XEVIOUS and old Galaga should be fighting over Gaston, but I think Van not being so faithful to Kari and Nicholas might make this a little less predictable.
4.) Not likely, but I would love for Taylor to join Nicholas and Kari as a trio

[Charity]

Here my thoughts on the swapped tribes...

NEW ZAXXON -

This tribe is low key an unfortunate situation for Ben/Ryan/Gina. Their hope does not fall in if they can get the original Zaxxon members to crack... their hope comes in if they can make it to the second swap and eventually the merge. I don't think the players are properly anticipating the route this game is going to go, so if the Zaxxon 4 show 0 flexibility then this could spell trouble for them long term. Here are the power rankings as far as I can tell -

1. Antoinette - She was super powerful on original Zaxxon, so it only makes sense that she maintains power on this tribe. She is also the individual who has made the most effort with Ben/Ryan/Gina, making it a point to say that her former tribe dynamic is nothing to worry about.. though it simply is. The best part about Antoinette's game is that nobody perceives her as a threat or problematic. Still a winner's pick as they win this first challenge.

2. Alexander - His power only transfers from the fact that he was pretty high up on original Zaxxon. He has at least talked to the people on the bottom, but has not made a super huge impact. He is likely going to ride the easy route on this tribe and stick with what he knows.

3. Marcellino - He is so high up because of his position with the Zaxxon 4, and the fact that he has the idol. He is not super impressive socially, but he does bring an unpredictable factor into this swap tribe. I am not sure if he would flip, but I know he plays a very reactionary game so if this tribe has time to stew, he could get paranoid.

4. Ali - Very average gameplay from Ali across the board. He doesn't suck necessarily, but he isn't blowing me away. He is in the majority and has yet to do anything problematic.

5. Gina - I think that Antoinette might want to keep Gina due to her being the only other woman, and on top of that Gina has put in tons of work socially with the 4 in the majority. Everyone LOVES Gina!! She is so low down due to her original tribe lines, my only worry for her is that people could overestimate her and target her as a result. I believe she will easily make the second swap.

6/7. Ben/Ryan - Both of them realize that they could be on the bottom of this tribe, so they are putting in work to integrate socially. Both are definitely in hot water, however, because Ryan is perceived as a threat for his reality TV experience and Ben might be in trouble simply by default - he has not blown anyone in the majority away. I see either leaving if this tribe loses. Probably Ben if they want an easy vote and Ryan if they want to make a "big move."



NEW GALAGA -

1. Gaston - He is at the top of the power rankings for this round, but I could see this changing depending on how he conducts himself prior to this tribal. In a 3-3-1 situation where both 3s are sticking together, it makes sense for the 1 to have the most power. I hope Gaston keeps people who are going to want to work with him beyond this round. Kilby is sort of all over the place with Gaston, but everyone else seems to like him? It's hard to say. There is unpredictability in regards to Gaston's trajectory, oh well. He wants Nicholas out, but Gaston's move is to do Van first and pitch Nicholas to go second. Gaston needs to act in his better interest or else he will fall on this list.

2. Taylor - Taylor is not somebody who is going to be crazy and push her agenda (aside from not voting out people who have expressed wanting to work with her), but she really doesn't need to... She is super safe on this tribe. Pretty much everyone has expressed wanting to work with Taylor, and there is virtually no way she is targeted 2nd despite the outcome of this tribal. Solid low key game as far as I'm concerned, but she's smart.

3. Kilby - Right now everyone loves Kilby; however, Kilby is going to burn a lot of bridges if he conducts himself poorly today. He is going absolutely crazy in his production chat, deeming himself as someone who has ultimate power over who goes. He basically shut down Kari when she discussed targeting Spitzer, which makes sense strategically but also puts him in the spot where he gets blamed for this vote when Spitzer stays. I think Kilby overplaying his hand this round could make people see him as a super threat next round. Whatever happens, he needs to keep Spitzer on a tight rope and Taylor in his good graces.

4. Kari - She is horribly misplaying this round, pushing an agenda that helps her I guess but also an agenda nobody is going to do. She has made it abundantly clear that she is playing in her own best interest, which will put people off in the long term game. She needed to not put the importance on tribal lines going into this tribe, she could've realistically made an alliance with a mixture of people... but she opted not to do this. Despite all of this, she is in less danger than those below her due to the simple fact that the other 3 are being actively targeted.

5. Spitzer - Rubbing a lot of people the wrong way, including Kari and maybe Taylor? People just aren't the fan of the way he speaks... which is kind of yikes. The reason he is not in danger this round is because Gaston/Kilby feel that they need Spitzer as a number and shield, and because of their power on this tribe he will not leave despite Nicholas/Kari wanting it.

6-7. Nicholas/Van - I hate that Nicholas is this low.. his only misstep up until this point is not pushing Van to go. Van is a super easy target who people shouldn't be going to bat for. Nicholas is in so much danger because people are scared of him. Nicholas needs to push Van as the vote and pray he can make it to the second swap. He also needs to work on making people less scared of him. Van is just inactive and barely talks... people aren't scared of Van, but Van might survive if people decide to go for bigger targets. I really hope Van leaves here because they don't provide much for the game moving forward.

[aubra]

Gray -

Joshua - Sounds like he's doing an awful job even though he's pretty safe this round. He decided it was old blue vs. old pink with Gaston in the middle so he didn't need to talk to pink. Buddy you need to at least give people a chance and figure out if pink is even close. Also still rubbing people the wrong way by being pushy regarding chances. Could see him becoming a goat if he sticks around much longer.

Kilby - Still calling shots. Real tight with Gaston.

Taylor - Everyone likes her. Sounds like she wants Van out over Nicholas which I think is smart for her. Hope she gets her way.

Van - pretty much inactive. Lied to Kilby about the pink tribe dynamics? In what world do people who are blindsided lie about it? Should be jumping on this opportunity to make conncetions but it seems like they just dont care about the game.

Nicholas - Could be in big trouble this round. Sounds like Gaston and him have their sights set on each other. Should be pushing for Van to go but doesn't realize he's in danger.

Kari- also should be pushing for Van to go. I think the fact that she and Nich said they weren't with Van but now don't want to vote them is probably sketching people out. I think people like her but she may lose Nich. I still see her recovering if he does go but she'll have to fake not being really pissed.

Gaston - Close with Kilby. Doing a solid job. Nich may be targetting him now but that shouldn't gain any traction.

[aubra]

Also LOL at Jumi thinking she got voted out bc she won reel foot and saying that's the only reason she can think of... Girl you know about the whole t shirt saga for one...

[jordan]

ZAXXON Tribe

Ben- Missed the swap tribe call because he was on a date🤦🏻 Ben's the kind of guy who gives a great first impression, but then you see him slowly unravel before you. Told Antoinette the XEVIOUS idol was flushed. He's afraid he is starting to appear as a challenge threat. Ben correctly believes Kilby has an idol and thinks that the Zaxxon idol is currently on his tribe; which yes, considering 4 of the 5 are there it's true. He seems to have bonded the most with Alexander.

Ryan- Hoping to find cracks in the majority original Zaxxon to keep him and Gina safe is hilarious given that he wanted to get rid of her earlier. Honestly now would be the time to really break ties, but it could make him look sketchy to try to throw Gina under the bus now. But what does he have to lose at this point. Best to keep winning for now.

Gina- She's harmless to everyone and the original Zaxxon's best bet to take in. I think socially she has made good bonds. Whoever really picks her up and teaches her the game will be in a really good spot. That might be Antoinette.

Marcellino, Ali, Antoinette, and Alexander- I will call them MAAA!!! They have no reason to break apart. Ali is clearly bottom rung here, but even if he knows it I doubt he would do anything. If Alexander and Antoinette want to get fancy, they could target Marcellino since he told them he has an idol. But they are a big happy family, so I really don't see them trying anything. If another swap happens, this group will be targeted.

GALAGA Tribe

Van- Unfortunately it doesn't look like we are going to get Van's revenge or #Justice4Malkon since Van may have checked out of the game. She hasn't made attempts to get to know her new tribe.

Gaston - Was originally freaking out about being separated from his original tribe. Now he's seeing that he has the value of being between two different groups that could use him. He knows Kilby's girlfriend really well, so he already has a relationship there. They both bonded over initial distrust of Nicholas based off of tengage in the past. But ultimately has a good call with Nicholas, but still doesn't fully trust him because Alexander talked up how dangerous of a player he is. Based off his confessionals, it seems Gaston will likely vote with the original Galaga trio. Gaston always says subscribe down below...if he only knew what ads were actually below his videos on this board 😬

Kilby- He's drunk on power and itching to be crazy. Gaston is closer to him, then he is to Gaston. Kilby needs to take a nap and let Taylor fill him in before he makes things harder for himself than they need to be. Although since Malkon left, we as viewers are in need of another spiralling player to watch.

Taylor- I definitely didn't peg her for the under the radar player in the preseason, but it's smart for her. I just hope at some point in the game we get to see Taylor play at a different pace. But she is in a great spot still.

Spitzer- Definitely disappointed in how he has played so far. He's lucky the people he wants to work with are still around, but what happens when he is forced to work with people he doesn't make an effort to get to know? Underwhelming is an understatement.

Kari- Unfortunately Kari was forced into playing fast with back to back tribal councils, but now she needs to step back and read the room. These players are not ready to play at that pace and she is about to be on a sinking ship. Time to make nice with Spitzer because he will likely still be around.

Nicholas- He doesn't know it, but all his past reputations and connections are catching up with him. People don't trust him and want to target him. Nicholas can charm them, but even that sketches them out. Nicholas needs to throw Van and possibly Kari to the dogs in order to survive this.

[dara]

Gaston's in such a good spot to make it long term in this game. He pretty much swapped away from his entire tribe and won over everyone by going "i CaNt Go BaCk To ThEm CaUsE iLl Be On ThE BoTtoM." He's got Alex/Ali/Antoinette/Marcellino to team up with later on, and everyone here likes him. You'd think that tribe would worry about an OG blue thing down the line but that's not even on the radar for whatever reason.

Thank god Taylor convinced everyone to vote out Van who's been pretty irrelevant since the Malkon boot. Big oof by Kari telling them she's worried voting out Van means they could turn on her next round.